Recently, the EMM market showed a strong upward trend, with spot prices rising rapidly and trading activity heating up. Favorable factors from both supply and demand sides were released collectively, coupled with support from the stockpiling season, boosting industry sentiment and indicating clear further price increases for EMM.

Cost pressure from the raw material side continued to intensify, becoming a core driver for price increases. It is reported that South32's offer for Australian lumps for January 2026 shipment to China climbed to $4.85/mtu, up $0.3/mtu from previous levels. The renewed rise in manganese ore prices further strengthened traders' reluctance to sell, tightening raw material circulation in the market. Some traders suspended external offers, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment. Meanwhile, although the main production areas in south China have not yet entered the peak dry season, hydropower supply has already become tight, directly pushing up electricity costs. In key production regions like Guangxi and Guizhou, differentiated production restrictions under the autumn-winter pollution prevention campaign have been implemented, forcing small and medium-sized enterprises with substandard environmental protection facilities to reduce loads or halt production. The decline in industry operating rates further tightened supply. Sulphuric acid, a key auxiliary material in EMM production, saw a sharp price surge recently, with both volume and prices rising in the market. Industry data show that offers in mainstream domestic regions for sulphuric acid increased over 15% MoM, with some areas exceeding 950 yuan/mt due to tight supply. The rapid rise in sulphuric acid prices significantly increased auxiliary material costs for EMM production, notably strengthening cost support across the entire industry chain and providing a solid foundation for price increases.

Supply-side contraction further intensified market tightness, supporting price strength. Leading enterprises clearly implemented short-term production cuts. For instance, Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry shifted focus to its annual 1.6 million mt solid waste EMM slag resource utilization project, proactively reducing monthly production by 5% and prioritizing high-value-added order deliveries. This move significantly tightened market supply, amplifying the supply-demand gap and injecting momentum into price rises. Market dynamics indicate that mainstream producers currently hold low spot inventory, mostly fulfilling long-term contracts, with spot order offers continuously raised. Some enterprises even suspended spot order taking, exacerbating market tightness.

Demand-side rigid procurement remained strong, combined with the arrival of the stockpiling season, continuously heating up market sentiment. Entering December, steel mill tender activity intensified further, with tender volumes significantly higher than November. Key mills such as HBIS and Shagang successively announced December tender plans, with tender volumes generally increasing 10%-20% MoM, indicating sustained release of rigid procurement demand. Meanwhile, approaching Christmas, stockpiling cycles in downstream alloy, chemical, and other industries officially began, steadily boosting market demand. From the spot market transactions, recent market inquiries and trading volume both increased significantly. To ensure production continuity, some downstream enterprises accepted the current price hikes and actively accelerated their procurement pace. Traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and their quotations were raised following the market trend, narrowing the room for price negotiations, which further amplified the upward momentum in the market.

Overall, driven by multiple positive factors such as rising raw material costs, supply contraction, seasonal stockpiling demand, and rigid procurement from steel mills, the spot circulation of EMM in the market continued to shrink sharply. The pattern of undersupply and scarcity of available cargo became increasingly clear, directly driving a significant rise in spot prices. According to the latest market quotations, the mainstream spot price for domestic EMM has climbed to 15,800 yuan/mt, up more than 5% from the beginning of the month, with some high-quality sources quoted above 16,000 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead, the tight supply-demand balance in the industry is expected to persist in the short term. Coupled with positive market sentiment and low spot inventory, EMM prices are likely to continue rising. Although downstream buyers may have a desire to bargain down prices, strong supply-demand fundamentals and cost support are expected to make it difficult to curb the upward trend. The market as a whole will maintain a pattern of fluctuating upward.