The EMM market recently showed a clear trend of sharp rises, with spot prices climbing rapidly and market trading activity continuing to heat up. Concentrated positive factors from both supply and demand, combined with support from the peak stocking season, have driven industry sentiment increasingly higher, indicating a clear upward trajectory for EMM prices ahead.

Cost pressure from the raw material end continues to intensify, becoming the core driver pushing prices upward. According to reports, South32's offer for Australian lumps for January 2026 shipment to China increased to $4.85/mtu, up $0.3/mtu from previous levels. The further rise in manganese ore prices has strengthened traders' reluctance to sell, leading to tighter availability of raw materials in the market. Some traders have suspended external offers, and wait-and-see sentiment is prevalent. Meanwhile, although the main production areas in south China have not yet entered the deep dry season, hydropower supply has already become tight, directly pushing up electricity costs. In major production regions such as Guangxi and Guizhou, differentiated production restrictions have been implemented during the autumn-winter pollution prevention and control campaign. Small and medium-sized enterprises with substandard environmental protection facilities have been forced to reduce output or halt production, causing industry operating rates to decline and further tightening supply. Sulphuric acid, a key auxiliary material in EMM production, has seen prices surge significantly recently, with the market showing both volume and price increases. Industry data indicates that mainstream domestic sulphuric acid prices have risen more than 15% MoM, with offers in some areas exceeding yuan950/mt due to tight supply. The rapid increase in sulphuric acid prices has significantly raised the auxiliary material costs for EMM production, markedly strengthening cost support throughout the entire industry chain and providing a solid foundation for price increases.

From a market dynamics perspective, spot inventories at major producers are currently low, with most focusing on fulfilling long-term contracts. Spot order offers continue to be raised, and some enterprises have even suspended spot order acceptance, exacerbating tight supply conditions in the market. Rigid procurement demand remains strong, coupled with the arrival of the peak stocking season, keeping market sentiment heated. Entering December, steel mill tender activity has intensified further, with tender volumes significantly higher than in November. Major steel mills such as HBIS and Shagang have successively announced tender plans for December, with tender volumes generally increasing 10%-20% MoM, indicating sustained release of rigid procurement demand. Simultaneously, as Christmas approaches, the stocking cycle for downstream industries like alloys and chemicals has officially begun, steadily boosting market demand. In the spot market, both inquiries and trading volumes have increased notably recently. To ensure production continuity, some downstream enterprises are accepting the current price hikes and actively accelerating their procurement pace. Traders show strong willingness to hold prices firm, adjusting offers according to market conditions and narrowing negotiation margins, further amplifying upward momentum in the market.

Overall, driven by the resonance of multiple positive factors including rising raw material costs, supply contraction, peak seasonal stocking demand, and rigid steel mill procurement, the available spot supply of EMM in the market continues to shrink sharply. The pattern of undersupply and scarce availability is becoming increasingly clear, directly fueling a significant rise in spot prices. Judging from the latest mainstream quotations, domestic spot EMM prices have climbed to 15,800 yuan/mt, up more than 5% from the beginning of the month, with some high-quality offers breaking through 16,000 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead, the tight supply-demand balance is unlikely to ease in the short term. Coupled with positive market sentiment and low spot inventory, EMM prices are expected to continue rising. Although downstream buyers may desire to bargain down prices, strong supply-demand fundamentals and cost support will likely prevent any significant price decline, maintaining an overall upward market trend.